UPDATE 1-Canadian rates seen firm through 2008
(Adds details, quotes)
By Cameron French
TORONTO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Canada's primary securities dealers expect the Bank of Canada to leave its key interest rate steady next week, and likely through the end of the year, as inflation is seen persistent despite slow economic growth.
Eleven of Canada's 12 dealers surveyed by Reuters forecast the central bank will leave its overnight rate at 3 percent on Sept. 3. One dealer expects a quarter percentage point cut.
Eleven dealers forecast the rate will also remain unchanged at the October decision date, and all but one expect the same in December.
"It would be quite dangerous for the Bank of Canada to start fooling around with that (interest rate cuts), because inflation is still sticky," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank of Canada.
"Credit growth is still fairly hot here, so I think the bank would be playing with fire by cutting rates at this stage," he said.
The poll was taken after Statistics Canada said the economy expanded by a weaker than expected 0.3 percent in the second quarter, after contracting by 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year.
"Over time, it looks like growth is going to remain weak, slack is going to build and the risk on inflation is tilting to the downside. but I think it's premature for the central bank to signal the all-clear," said David Wolf, chief Canadian economist at Merrill Lynch.
Nine of the dealers polled said they believe the next move by the bank will come before the end of the first half of 2009 and most say that with the economy softening, that move will likely be a cut.
"The door's opening for a rate cut. The risks have changed and shifted to the downside," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. (Reporting by Cameron French, additional reporting by John McCrank; editing by Rob Wilson)
© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved







