Russia outflow estimates exaggerated: Central bank

By Yelena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Market estimates of Russia's capital outflows in August 2008 following the conflict in Georgia are exaggerated, First Deputy Chairman of the central bank Alexei Ulyukayev told Reuters on Monday.

Foreign investors fled Russian assets last month, spooked by the military conflict with Georgia and the subsequent souring of relations with the West. Analysts estimate outflows at $14-$16 billion while the central bank says it was $4.6 billion.

Accumulated inflows currently stand at $25.4 billion since the beginning of the year.

"Outflows (in August) were smaller than analysts had expected. It is important to take into consideration the situation on the forex market," Ulyukayev said in an interview at the Reuters Russia Investment Summit.

"The strengthening of the dollar versus the euro and other currencies means a statistical decline in reserves. This is why analysts had estimated outflows at $15-$16 billion," he said at the event, held at the Reuters office in Moscow.

"We are not changing our $40 billion estimate for the full year. We do not see any reasons to do it now but we will look at how the situation develops," Ulyukayev said.

"The outflow has slowed down a bit," he added.

The central bank's unchanged stance on capital inflows contrasts with that of analysts, who have slashed their views by over a third since the Georgia conflict and now see net inflows of just $25 billion this year, according to a Reuters poll published on Monday ID:nL5646402.

Ulyukayev forecast more inflows before the end of the year as Russian banks and firms need to refinance their debt.

"First of all it will be new loans. We presume the corporate debt will have to be refinanced. It will be refinanced on worse conditions. The new debt will have higher interest and shorter maturity but it will be refinanced," Ulyukayev said.

(Editing by Paul Bolding)