Brazil growth to slow after strong 2007: investor

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Brazil's economy is unlikely to expand as rapidly as last year when the stars lined up to offer the country a dreamlike growth scenario, the investor and former World Bank economist who coined the phrase "emerging markets" said on Wednesday.

Everything went in Brazil's favor last year -- from insatiable demand for the country's export commodities to the discovery of a major oil field -- Antoine van Agtmael, founder and chief investment officer at Emerging Markets Management LLC in Arlington, Virginia, told the Reuters Latin America Investment Summit.

"Interest rates came down, the economy was strong, the companies were doing well. Everybody was making a ton of money and then they found oil. And in China, they needed every piece of iron ore they could lay their hands on," van Agtmael said.

"That's the dream scenario. Will there again be a dream scenario? Perhaps not quite as dreamy as last year," he said.

While Van Agtmael does not expect a hard landing for Brazil, he does see a possible decline in exports and the potential for higher interest rates as drags.

While cautious about Brazil's domestic economy, including a possible downside surprise in slower non-agriculture commodities' growth, van Agtmael also said he was not pessimistic.

"You have great filmmakers, but you don't win an Oscar every year. Brazil's been winning the Oscar, so this year it's probably not going to win the Oscar," he said.

Brazil grew about 5.4 percent in 2007, and economists expect gross domestic product to expand about 4.6 percent this year.  Continued...